After years of speculation that Aka ruined the value of the Canadian Dollar against the Japanese Yen I decided that this afternoon I would conclusively analyze the issue and present my findings. After many minutes of data mining and research I can say without a doubt that many’s hypothesis has been proven correct. Indeed, Aka is the cause of the Canadian Dollars decline and the growth of the Japanese market against it.
Allow me to analyze the data more in depth and perhaps shed a little light on the effects Aka has had on the market. To the left side of the graph we can see growth from ¥85.5809 to $1 CAD all the way up to ¥105.89. During this period market growth was based on two factors. The first factor was well, to put it simply, Aka wasn’t part of it, at least not directly. The second factor however is a little more important, speculation. Market growth was due to the speculation that Aka would not enter, and not only not enter but his awareness of the market was such that he considered the value to cost ratio of a figure to be disproportional.
In late 2006 we see the market leveling off as his income level increased and his ability to make frivilous purchases grew. At the beginning of 2007 he started to reconsider his stance on the cost/value ratio but due to prices seen on eBay quickly decide that he’d been right originally and the market boomed up to a peak of ¥117.59 per $1 CAD by early July. Moving to August and September we can see a large drop along with a small recovery and another drop. This is because Aka was looking more frequently and trying to figure out what he’d been missing and why there was this preceived cost/value discrepancy of his. And here we hit the final peak before the market collapses, rapidly recovering and continuing to grow up to ¥122.65 in November the market realizes that that’s it, Aka’s going to start collecting and there’s nothing they can do to stop him. Of course this is speculation at first but never the less it caused the market to drop considerably from the last quarter of 2007 unto the first of 2008.
In mid 2008 there was some growth, growth based on the fact that after seeing Taki Corporations Horo in person he’d surely leave the market never to return. This was because the cost/value ratio of Taki Corp figures was so large that no sane human being would continue after such a disparaging dissimilitude. However this was not the case as he decided to make his next purchase, Alpha x Omega’s CC, which for it’s time and even still today was of impeccable quality and production values. And even more detrimental to the market, was only 60% of the cost of Taki Corporation’s Horo driving the cost/quality ratio through the roof and eventually leading to the markets rapid decline in the final quarter of 2008.
From this point on the growth of the Canadian Dollar against the Japanese Yen is based solely on market speculation alone, will Aka increase/decrease/stop his collecting. The obvious answer looking back is ‘no’ but hindsight is 20/20 as they say. At the time it was a much more volatile decision. As the total spent increased, the likelihood Aka would back down increased substantially, or so many thought anyway. But with each peak Aka would purchase another figure, sometimes multiples causing large fluctuations in the market. Eventually peaking in April with speculation Aka would burnout, however this would not last long as pre-orders and purchases continued to be made. Another surge in June happened for similar reasons but wasn’t as strong and again died off causing a further reduction in market value. In late 2010 Aka did eventually burnout, but this was limited to posting to his website and not a reduction of purchases at all. This was the cause of the subtle growth into 2011.
Finally reaching the ‘present’ we can see there was one more peak when Aka realized how much he’d spent and that he should reduce future purchases considerably but like everything else, was short lived as both Alter’s Dizzy and Kotobukiya’s Rei arrived which subsequently caused a market drop. There’s little way of knowing where the market will go from here, Aka currently has 20 items on his pre-order list but continually checks it trying to find ways to reduce it though never actually cancelling anything. As Aka’s been selling off a small portion of his collection the potential for market growth is there however there remains speculation he’ll just use that money to buy figures replacing the ones he recently sold. The future cannot be seen until it happens but it can be said, Aka’s interest in other hobbies are growing, recently receiving his beginners Motorcycle license and has aspirations of purchasing a motorcycle which would significantly reduce the amount of frivilous spending money he can allocate to his other hobbies. With that in mind, perhaps now is a good time to invest in the Canadian Dollar, the potential for rapid growth is there.
Upon being presented with the information Aka issued the following statement, “Fellow Canadians, I am truly sorry, had I only known the effects my entering this hobby would have I would not have done so. Please accept my sincerest apologies and forgive me for my sins. However, I cannot stop now, the desire is too great and the women too pretty.” Well, there you have it.
This went on so much longer than I intended. It started with a comment reply to Visual Fanfare on my April Collection Update post and ended up as this. And it was such a nice day out too. Oh well, I had fun making it all up and cherry picking data to show some kind of corrolation. The big drop is obviously caused by the financial crisis in the US that was caused by the housing market collapse which rippled throughout the worlds financial markets.